The gray bars in this and all the following figures represent recessions, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Īs you can see from Figure 1, a long period of oil price stability was interrupted in 1973. The price shown is the monthly average spot price of a barrel of West Texas intermediate crude oil, measured in U.S. How have oil prices behaved in recent decades?įigure 1 shows the history of the price of oil since the early 1950s. Let me begin by discussing the evolution of oil prices over time. What a daunting question! With oil prices increasing rapidly in the recent past, it is hard not to wonder what has caused it and just what effect it might have on the rest of the economy.
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